The number lands with a thud: $145.02 billion.
That is what Nigeria now owes the rest of the world, according to the World Bank’s International Debt Report 2026, released on Thursday, November 5. It is not just a figure on a page. It is a bill that will be paid by Nigerians who have not yet been born.
And the arithmetic behind it is uncomfortable.
A Decade of Borrowing
In 2015, Nigeria’s external debt stood at $83.21 billion. By 2025, it had climbed to $145.02 billion — a jump of roughly $61.8 billion in ten years, a 6.6 per cent increase in 2025 alone.
The breakdown matters, because it complicates the easy narrative. Of the total, $62.4 billion is public and publicly guaranteed debt — the Federal Government, public institutions and state-owned companies, plus private loans the government has backed. Another $54.476 billion belongs to private borrowers with no government guarantee. The remaining $28.139 billion is short-term external obligations.
In plain terms: government borrowing and government-guaranteed loans account for less than half of the total. The rest sits with the private sector and short-term creditors.
The Squeeze
But here is where the story turns.
The World Bank’s figures show Nigeria’s external debt-to-exports ratio at 212 per cent in 2025, and its external debt-to-gross national income ratio at 51 per cent. Debt service as a share of exports stood at 19 per cent; as a share of GNI, five per cent.
On the surface, there is a sliver of good news. The debt-to-exports and debt-to-GNI ratios both fell compared with 2024 — by 4.3 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively.
The cost of servicing that debt went the other way. The debt-service-to-exports ratio rose 9.6 per cent, and debt service relative to GNI climbed 6.9 per cent.
Translation: Nigeria’s debt looks slightly smaller relative to its income and exports. But the burden of paying it has grown heavier.
A Global Pattern, a Nigerian Problem
Nigeria is not alone in this. Debt servicing across low- and middle-income countries rose for the fifth straight year, hitting $1.4 trillion in 2025 — a 1.9 per cent increase driven largely by obligations to private lenders, especially international bondholders.
Between 2022 and 2025, these countries paid about $436.1 billion more in debt service than they received in fresh financing. The pattern shifted slightly in 2025, when long-term debt flows recorded a net inflow of $45.4 billion, compared with a net outflow of $118.4 billion in 2024.
Haishan Fu, the World Bank’s Chief Statistician, called it a worrying development: developing countries are getting more access to foreign loans but paying increasingly high costs to secure them. Many, he said, are borrowing more and spending more on repayments, leaving fewer resources for long-term development.
His warning was blunt: rising debt payments are draining money from infrastructure, job creation, education and healthcare. He urged developing countries to prioritise affordable, transparent and sustainable financing rather than simply borrowing more.
The Bond Market Return
Nigeria returned to the international bond market in 2025, raising $2.3 billion through a two-part sovereign bond issuance. According to the World Bank, Nigeria was the third-largest issuer among Sub-Saharan African countries eligible for International Development Association financing that year.
The first bond was a 10-year instrument at 8.625 per cent. The second was a 20-year bond at 9.125 per cent.
Those rates tell their own story. Across IDA-eligible countries, the average interest rate on new loans from private creditors climbed to 8.2 per cent in 2025 — the highest since the late 1980s. Official creditors, by contrast, charged an average of 2.7 per cent.
The gap between the two widened to 5.5 percentage points in 2025, up from 3.4 percentage points in 2016.
For Nigeria specifically, new official external debt commitments carried an average interest rate of 1.9 per cent, while private creditors charged an average of 9.6 per cent. Official loans had an average repayment period of 25 years with a five-year grace period; private loans averaged 12 years with an eight-year grace period.
The message is hard to miss: official money is cheaper and slower. Private money is faster and far more expensive.
The $5 Billion Question
Then there is the arrangement the World Bank flagged as a growing concern: the Total Return Swap.
Nigeria is among the countries — alongside Angola, Argentina, Colombia and Senegal — that have entered into such arrangements since 2024. In 2026, Nigeria entered a $5 billion TRS transaction with a three-year maturity and a collateralisation ratio of about 133 per cent.
In practice, that means Nigeria pledged securities worth roughly $6.7 billion to secure $5 billion in financing.
The World Bank acknowledged that such deals can give governments quick access to foreign currency, sometimes at lower short-term cost than conventional borrowing. But it warned of real risks: potential demands for additional collateral, refinancing difficulties and transparency concerns.
Most pointedly, the report raised questions about whether the full financial obligations of countries using these arrangements are properly captured in official debt figures. Where a government receives money upfront and must repay it, the World Bank argued, the arrangement should be recognised as debt — even if it involves financial derivatives.
It advised governments to disclose the amount borrowed, repayment period, collateral used, margin requirements and other repayment conditions, warning that failure to do so leaves citizens, investors and financial institutions unable to see the full extent of a country’s obligations.
What This Means for Nigerians
The headlines will focus on the $145.02 billion. The more important story is in the ratios and the repayment terms.
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Nigeria’s debt is growing, its servicing costs are rising faster than its income, and a growing share of its borrowing comes from private creditors at rates that would make an official lender blush. Add the TRS arrangement, and the picture becomes one of a government managing obligations that are not always fully visible.
The World Bank’s advice — affordable, transparent and sustainable financing — is easier said than done. But the report makes one thing clear: the cost of not asking hard questions about debt is paid, eventually, by the people.