When Aliko Dangote’s refinery launched ramped-up petrol production, it was pitched as Nigeria’s end to half a century of petrol scarcity and crippling import bills.
Built at a staggering $20 billion cost with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the refinery was meant to replace imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and make Nigeria energy self-sufficient.
Dangote himself boasted of ending 50 years of fuel crisis, stating the refinery had slashed pump prices from nearly ₦1,100 to around ₦841 in key regions and had exported over 1.1 billion litres of petrol within a few months of operation.
He also projected expanding capacity to 700,000 barrels per day and making Nigeria a major export hub.
Reality Check: Output vs Demand — Still a Massive Gap
Despite the fanfare, there’s a huge gap between what was promised and what was delivered on the ground:
Latest figures show the refinery’s average petrol output was only ~18 million litres per day, far below the projected 35 million litres needed to meet demand without imports.
This means Nigeria still depended heavily on imported fuel.
Overall petrol consumption hovered near 56 million litres per day, leaving a massive deficit.
At times the refinery scaled back crude purchases — handling less than half its designed capacity — a sign of ongoing operational strain.
These gaps revived fears that the refinery alone cannot end petrol scarcity, especially while state-owned refineries remain idle and crude supply is inconsistent.
Import Surge & Regulatory Blame Game
In a jaw-dropping twist, Dangote itself accused the former leadership of Nigeria’s petroleum regulator (NMDPRA) of issuing import licences recklessly — driving petrol imports above domestic demand even as the refinery expanded output.
The refinery said this was not a supply failure on its part but regulatory mismanagement.
This sparked a political firestorm:
Critics say regulators issued licences to protect powerful import interests.
Dangote countered that excessive imports during late 2025 distorted the market and undermined domestic refining efforts.
This isn’t just a policy spat — it’s a frontal clash between a private giant and the state’s institutions, stirring accusations of sabotage and protectionism.
Fuel Prices Still High — Who’s Really Winning?
One explosive contradiction is that even with domestic refining, fuel prices didn’t plummet nationwide as expected.
While some regions saw lower pump rates, Nigerians in many states still faced high costs, raising uncomfortable questions:
Why hasn’t local refining translated into deep price cuts?
Are hidden costs, tariffs, or market distortions keeping prices high?
Does this signal that Nigeria might be swapping one form of market rent-seeking for another?
Opposition voices argue Dangote’s refinery may even be creating a new private monopoly on refined petrol, where huge refining margins could replace subsidy-driven rents.
Online critics have accused Dangote of being “the cabal” pushing petrol prices up under the guise of local refining.
Labour Unrest & Supply Choke Points
The refinery’s story isn’t just economic — it’s social and political too:
Labor unions such as PENGASSAN nearly shut down crude and gas supply after allegations of unfair sacking and treatment of Nigerian workers, with calls to cut fuel supply valves.
Strikes and workplace grievances highlighted deeper issues over employment equity and the role of foreign staff.
Such conflicts posed real threats to the refinery’s ability to deliver on its promise.
Technical Challenges: RFCC Bottlenecks and Capacity Limits
Even the refinery’s complex units, like the RFCC (Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking) system crucial for maximizing petrol output, have faced problems.
Recent industry reports suggest that such bottlenecks could keep production below potential capacity well into 2026.
This means that Nigeria’s biggest industrial bet could be hobbling along, unable to fire on all cylinders — and fuel scarcity might persist longer than promised.
Mixed National Impact: Imports Down but Not Out
There was real impact in 2025:
Petrol imports fell dramatically — by as much as 54% in early 2025 — because of increased domestic supply.
Major marketers even paused petrol imports and started lifting millions of litres from Dangote’s refinery.
But Nigeria still imported nearly half its petrol needs while the refinery scaled up, underscoring that the plant didn’t fully replace imports.
Geopolitical Twist: Exporting vs Meeting Domestic Needs
Another explosive dimension: the refinery hasn’t just supplied Nigeria — it’s also exported petrol. Dangote showcased massive exports as proof of capacity and foreign-exchange earnings.
But critics ask:
Should Nigeria be exporting petrol while locals still pay high prices?
Is export strategy prioritising foreign revenue over domestic stability?
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This tension between profit and national service has become a flashpoint in debates about the refinery’s mission.
Miracle or Mirage?
The Dangote Refinery has undeniably reshaped Nigeria’s fuel landscape:
Massive industrial achievement
Lowered import dependency
Export revenues and foreign exchange savings
…but the petrol crisis isn’t over yet, and the narrative is now tangled with:
Regulatory battles and blame games
Persistent price pains for citizens
Labour strife and alleged cronyism
Technical bottlenecks limiting output
Political storm clouds over import licences
Whether the refinery will truly deliver on its promise or become another controversial chapter in Nigeria’s energy saga remains one of the most explosive public debates of the decade.